Nonlinear Estimation Procedures - Maximum Likelihood

An alternative to the least squares loss function is to maximize the likelihood or log-likelihood function (or to minimize the negative log-likelihood function; the term maximum likelihood was first used by Fisher, 1922a). In most general terms, the likelihood function is defined as:

L = F(Y,Model) = Õin= 1 {p [yi, Model Parameters(xi)]}

In theory, we can compute the probability (now called L, the likelihood) of the specific dependent variable values to occur in our sample, given the respective regression model. Provided that all observations are independent of each other, this likelihood is the geometric sum (Õ, across i = 1 to n cases) of probabilities for each individual observation (i) to occur, given the respective model and parameters for the x values. (The geometric sum means that we would multiply out the individual probabilities across cases.) It is also customary to express this function as a natural logarithm, in which case the geometric sum becomes a regular arithmetic sum (S, across i = 1 to n cases).

Given the respective model, the larger the likelihood of the model, the larger is the probability of the dependent variable values to occur in the sample. Therefore, the greater the likelihood, the better is the fit of the model to the data. The actual computations for particular models here can become quite complicated because we need to "track" (compute) the probabilities of the y-values to occur (given the model and the respective x-values). As it turns out, if all assumptions for standard multiple regression are met (as described in Multiple Regression), then the standard least squares estimation method (see above) will yield results identical to the maximum likelihood method. If the assumption of equal error variances across the range of the x variable(s) is violated, then the weighted least squares method described earlier will yield maximum likelihood estimates.